Independent OCTA Research group fellow Dr. Guido David on Wednesday said an area should have at least 80% vaccinated population and a reproduction number below 1 to be considered that it has achieved herd immunity from COVID-19.
David told GMA News Online that there is only one formula in assessing herd immunity which is based on the vaccination rate and reproduction number.
“It is based doon sa reproduction number, pero needed yung minimum level natin to achieve herd immunity should be around 80% vaccination rate based doon sa reproduction number,” he said in an interview.
[Based on our reproduction number — below 1 — our minimum vaccination rate should be 80% to achieve herd immunity.]
“Kailangan below 1 ang reproduction number. Kung hindi below 1, then hindi pa na-achieve herd immunity (The reproduction number should be below 1. If it’s not below 1, herd immunity has yet to be achieved)” he added.
However, David noted that there are some additional factors that can be considered about herd immunity like the efficacy of the brand of the vaccines.
He said that the formula assumes that the vaccines have 100% efficacy. He pointed out that assessing herd immunity will be hard for population that used mix brands as they have different levels of efficacy.
Areas with herd immunity have a high level of protection from a surge of COVID-19 cases. However, he reminded the public that there is still a low chance for a surge.
Children will also be more protected around vaccinated adults in areas with herd immunity.
Asked about workers from areas with low vaccinated population traveling to places with herd immunity, David said that it is still “unlikely” for a worker to carry the disease due to the high vaccine coverage.
According to him, the worker is more vulnerable in areas with low vaccine coverage.
On Tuesday, the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) said it has recorded 23 highly urbanized cities, mostly in Metro Manila, that have reached herd immunity against COVID-19.
“Umaabot po na 23 siyudad ang umabot na po ng 70% and up na fully vaccinated. So ibig sabihin po … ay nakamit na ang herd immunity sa target population,” DILG Secretary Eduardo Año said in his report to President Rodrigo Duterte aired Tuesday.
(Twenty-three cities have fully vaccinated 70% or above of their target population. This means their target population has already reached herd immunity.)
David said he is not aware if government agencies use the same formula for herd immunity.
In an interview on Balitanghali, Philippine Foundation for Vaccination director Dr. Lulu Bravo also said that more than 80% of the population must be vaccinated against the illness or have tested positive for COVID-19 once for an area to be deemed to have herd immunity.
She also said that there was no evidence that “acquired herd immunity” would be effective against the Omicron variant.
“Even for the herd immunity, specific ‘yun para sa sakit na nandyan kumakalat,”Bravo said. “Eh, ‘yung tinatawag nating variant, hindi tayo sigurado na ‘yung variant na darating ay… malalabanan nitong ating dati nang nakuhang herd immunity.”
[Even for the herd immunity, it’s specific to the virus currently prevailing. We are not sure if our herd immunity can fight against this variant that is coming.]—LBG/BM, GMA News
80% vax rate, below 1 reproduction number indicate herd immunity –OCTA
Source: Pinoy Hub News
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